The Outdoor Recreation Economy, 2024

Each year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases updated data on its Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account. Before we get into the numbers, it's critical to understand what "outdoor recreation" actually means in this context - because it's much broader than most people assume.

The outdoor recreation economy isn't a standalone industry. It's a satellite account that aggregates economic activity across 95 different industry categories. The BEA uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to identify any economic activity that's related to outdoor recreation, then pulls those pieces out of broader industries.

Conventional outdoor activities are what most people think of: boating, fishing, RVing, hunting, shooting, snow sports, hiking, camping, climbing, equestrian, ATVing, bicycling. These account for just 29.5% of the total.

Other outdoor activities include things you might not immediately expect: golf courses, tennis courts, amusement parks (yes, Disneyland), water parks, gardening supplies, kite flying, pickleball, paintball, festivals, concerts, and sporting events. Another 19%.

Supporting activities make up the majority at 51.5%. This is all the travel, tourism, transportation, lodging, food, and shopping related to outdoor recreation. Flights to national parks. Hotel stays near ski resorts. Meals in mountain towns. Gas for the road trip. Retail purchases along the way.

The definition also includes some genuinely surprising categories: oil and gas extraction on public lands, real estate services related to outdoor properties, financial services for outdoor-related purchases, construction of outdoor facilities, and wholesale distribution of outdoor goods.

So when you see headlines about the "$1.3 trillion outdoor economy," understand that this number represents an enormous range of economic activity. It's not just REI and Patagonia. It's not just hikers and climbers. It's theme parks, golf courses, RV manufacturers in Indiana, gas stations near trailheads, Airbnbs in gateway communities, and restaurants in ski towns. The breadth matters, because it shapes where the economic power actually sits - and whose interests get represented when the "outdoor industry" speaks as one.

In my 2023 analysis, I noted the significant deceleration from 10.2% to 3.6% and wrote "we'll have to see if it can continue to maintain this trajectory." It didn't. At 2.7%, outdoor recreation is now growing slower than the broader economy (2.8%) for the first time since before the pandemic. The rebound is fully spent.

Here's the macro view: outdoor recreation has expanded its slice of the economy over the past decade, but that expansion has now plateaued. The sector claimed a meaningfully larger share of GDP compared to a decade ago, but it's been flat for the past two years. What this tells us is that outdoor recreation is no longer outgrowing the broader economy - it's moving in lockstep with it. The rebound didn't just slow down. It ended.

I've been arguing for using chained 2017 dollars since my 2022 piece. The gap is now $156.6B, up from roughly $144B last year. A meaningful chunk of reported "growth" is just price increases. Lift tickets cost more. Hotel rooms cost more. Gas costs more. The underlying volume of outdoor activity isn't growing at the rate the headlines suggest.

The "$1.3 trillion outdoor economy" cited in headlines refers to nominal gross output ($1,257.6B). In inflation-adjusted terms, that's $990.3B (2017 dollars). That's a $267.3 billion inflation gap - 21% of the headline number is just price increases, not real growth. Since 2017, nominal gross output has grown 54%, but real gross output has grown only 21%. The gap has widened dramatically since 2020, when inflation began accelerating across outdoor rec spending categories: transportation, lodging, food, equipment, and services.

Last year I noted that boating/fishing had supplanted RVing as the #1 conventional activity. That holds. RVing's contraction continues at $27.5B, down from a peak of $31.2B in 2022. The production decline I flagged (down 47%) is playing out exactly as expected.

Hunting/shooting/trapping jumped 16.5% to $16.5B, up from $14.2B. Shooting specifically (including archery) went from $6.9B to $8.1B. This matters for the political dynamics I wrote about last year: the economic weight of the outdoor industry continues to concentrate in activities that don't align with the progressive environmentalist identity that many outdoor brands project.

Toggle to "All Activities" to see the full picture. Golf and tennis generate $28.1B. Amusement parks (yes, Disneyland counts): $21.7B. Gardening: $15.8B. Festivals and concerts: $18.4B. Each of these dwarfs hiking, climbing, and camping combined at $7.8B - just 1.1% of total outdoor recreation value added.

This isn't just a curiosity. It's the core tension in how the outdoor industry understands itself. The cultural identity revolves around trail running, climbing, and backcountry camping. The economic weight sits in golf courses, theme parks, gardening supplies, and boat manufacturing. When advocacy groups talk about the outdoor industry's political power, they're often speaking on behalf of economic interests that look nothing like the brands and athletes they feature in their marketing.

One structural reason hiking punches so far below its cultural weight: a huge percentage of hiking and camping gear is manufactured overseas, while 95% of boats sold in the U.S. are manufactured domestically. The manufacturing multiplier for boating is enormous. When the Outdoor Recreation Roundtable cites a "$1.2 trillion industry," hiking's share is roughly the same as kite flying, photography, and yard sports combined.

This treemap shows the full scope of what the BEA counts as "outdoor recreation." The size of each rectangle corresponds to its economic value. Transportation alone - at $106.2B - is larger than any individual conventional activity. Amusement parks generate nearly 3× the value of hiking, climbing, and camping combined. This visualization makes the definition's breadth impossible to ignore.

The outdoor recreation economy is, fundamentally, a travel and hospitality economy. Transportation alone generated $106.2B in value added. That's more than all conventional outdoor activities combined. People don't just want to drive somewhere to hike. They want to eat somewhere interesting, stay at the latest boutique Airbnb, get their third wave coffee. That's where the economic impact actually gets created.

Alaska jumped from 4.6% to 5.3%, the biggest move among the top states. Maine climbed from 3.7% to 4.0%. Hawaii ticked down from 6.3% to 6.1%, which tracks with its 4.0% employment decline, the steepest in the country.

Colorado at 3.3% ($18.1B total) is interesting. Snow activities contribute $1.6B, highest in the nation by a wide margin. Indiana at 3.3% and $17.1B matches Colorado's GDP share, but the composition is entirely different. Indiana's outdoor rec economy is heavily driven by RV manufacturing (the state produces roughly 80% of North American RVs), while Colorado's relies on snow sports and broader outdoor tourism. Two very different outdoor economies, two very different vulnerability profiles: Indiana exposed to manufacturing cycles, Colorado exposed to climate variability.

Florida and California together control 54% of the national amusement park outdoor recreation economy. Florida alone generates $6.5B in amusement park value added, California adds $5.3B. These two states' theme park complexes - Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Six Flags, Knott's Berry Farm - produce more economic value than entire traditional outdoor activity categories. This concentration underscores how unevenly distributed "outdoor recreation" value is, both geographically and by activity type. Two states, a handful of companies, dominating a category that itself dwarfs hiking and camping combined.

Real snow activity value added sits at $5.9B in 2017 dollars. Essentially flat. The nominal $7.6B is inflated by rising lift ticket prices, not increased participation. After the massive 2022 surge I noted (up 32.7%), the sector has plateaued.

The three largest conventional activities by value added are boating/fishing ($38.4B), RVing ($27.5B), and hunting/shooting ($16.5B). These are industries whose trade associations have historically donated across the aisle, with significant contributions to legislators who oppose environmental regulations.

Hunting/shooting's 16.5% jump concentrates even more economic weight in an activity whose participants and advocacy groups often hold very different positions on public lands and environmental policy than the hiking/climbing/trail running community. When the outdoor industry speaks with "one voice" on policy, it's worth asking whose economic interests are actually being represented.

The bipartisan sweet spot exists. Access, infrastructure, veteran services. But on the harder questions (monument protections, emissions standards, NEPA reform) the $38.4B boating industry and the $7.8B hiking industry have very different incentives. The numbers make that clearer every year.